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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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